Portfolio research support

Portfolio research report

Output 1.5 contributed to the department’s outcome by providing research, analysis and tools that improve the quality of decision-making by government and industry.

The output was delivered by the Bureau of Rural Sciences (BRS) and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).

Highlights

ABARE

• Analysed the likely implications of certain carbon price paths on afforestation, and gave presentations on the likely economic effects of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme on the agricultural sector at the 2009 Outlook and Greenhouse 09 conferences.
• Carried out extensive modelling and analysis of climate change policy scenarios (ABARE staff were seconded to Treasury for this purpose) and provided modelling for the Garnaut Climate Change Review.
• Promoted knowledge and open discussion on agricultural, fishery and forestry technical and industry issues at the ABARE 2009 Outlook conferences, held in Canberra and regionally.
• Presented up-to-date market outlook information, analysis and forecasts (which are widely reported by domestic and international media) in ABARE’s flagship quarterly forecasting journal, Australian commodities, to inform decision-making in governments and portfolio industries.
• Produced financial performance estimates and reports at the industry and farm levels using data collected through ABARE’s farm survey program to inform decision-making on Exceptional Circumstances (EC) assistance, the review of drought policy and other government programs.
• Developed a new publication series, Australian wheat supply and exports monthly, combining Australian Bureau of Statistics data with ABARE wheat production forecasts to provide an estimate of wheat availability at the end of each month—a new initiative following the deregulation of wheat export marketing.
• Released reports on how allocating shares in water storages and storage inflows can reduce irrigators’ costs in the event of climate change, and on the estimated impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture by industry and region in the Murray–Darling Basin.
• Provided briefings, assessments and input into discussions and debates on domestic and international issues important to Australian agriculture, fisheries and forestry, including productivity drivers, natural resource management (NRM), trade reform and market access.

BRS

• Supported the department’s priorities on climate change and drought by providing advice on the review of EC-declared areas, the inclusion of agriculture in the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, and opportunities for adaptation and emissions abatement in the agricultural sector.
• Provided technical contributions to the department’s biosecurity work, including providing tools to support import risk analyses and advice on assessing the risk–return of surveillance activities.
• Provided fisheries and marine science advice and data to meet domestic and international obligations and to assess Australia’s fisheries management performance.
• Maintained research and data collection to underpin sustainable and productive forest industries.
• Assessed the salinity threats to high-value environmental and agricultural assets in 46 NRM regions.
• Released the web-based climate-matching tool Climatch, which uses
  long-term temperature and rainfall patterns of a species’ existing distribution to determine its likely distribution—and potential to become a pest—if introduced to a new continent or region.
• Administered the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) and contributed to its development of five major technical and communication projects to support DAFF’s biosecurity activities.
• Produced the annual (2007) Fishery status reports on Commonwealth-managed fisheries, the State of the forests 2008 forest profiles, the National plantation update 2009 reports and Australia’s forests at glance 2009.

Relevant advice—ABARE

Climate change

In 2008–09 ABARE analysed the potential impacts of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme on agriculture, using a range of our modelling frameworks. We presented the findings at national and regional Outlook conferences, to improve industry stakeholders’ understanding of the scheme.

Forests and land use

ABARE undertook the economic analysis of the impact of carbon pricing on afforestation. This was done using our farm survey data and land use change modelling framework. The findings contributed to the Australian Government’s analysis of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

Farm financial performance

DAFF used ABARE farm survey data to:

• monitor the financial performance of farms regionally and by industry
• estimate the cost of rural programs and their effectiveness at farm level
• assess requests for assistance, including EC drought assistance
• track the profitability and viability of farms to assess the effects of changes in government policies on rural communities.

ABARE provided 23 Farm Economic Analysis—Exceptional Circumstances Declarations briefings to the Natural Resources Advisory Council. Each covered a number of EC-declared areas. All briefs were based on ABARE farm survey information and on commodity analysis.

One brief for assessment of a new EC application and one for assessment to reinstate an EC declaration were also provided.

Farm surveys

ABARE analysed data from seven major surveys conducted in 2008–09:

• Australian agricultural and grazing industries survey of broadacre farms
• Australian dairy industry survey
• Australian sugar industry survey
• irrigation survey
• vegetable industry survey
• honey bee industry survey
• regional wine grape growers’ survey.

From this analysis, we published 17 reports and 10 conference papers (including seven regional Outlook conference papers). We also updated public access databases providing survey data.

Based on our analysis of survey data, we provided a large number of ad hoc briefings and responses to requests for data. This included substantial requests for analysis of survey information arising from the review of drought policy.

We collected data for the Australian agricultural and grazing industries survey from 1600 interviews, and for the Australian dairy industry survey from 310 interviews. All milestones were met, including providing the quality of data required to produce all scheduled reports and to populate the online interactive database Agsurf.

DAFF provided funding to collect information from 900 additional farms to increase ABARE’s capacity to provide routine monitoring and reporting of farm productivity performance in each major region. ABARE successfully collected this information.

Agricultural commodity analysis—Australian commodities

ABARE published quarterly issues of Australian commodities—in September and December 2008 and in March and June 2009.

We published quarterly forecasts and market analyses for major Australian agricultural commodities, including wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, beef and veal, sheepmeat, wool and dairy. We also released quarterly forecasts for pigmeat, poultry and wine grapes. Market analyses for pigmeat, poultry and wine grapes were published in the March 2009 edition of Australian commodities.

ABARE 2009 Outlook conference

ABARE’s national 2009 Outlook conference, ‘A changing climate for agriculture’, was held in March 2009 in Canberra. It attracted more than 850 delegates from around Australia. There were 65 speakers in 21 sessions over two days. The Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, the Hon. Tony Burke MP, opened the conference.

A highlight was the global trade session, where Mr Pascal Lamy, head of the World Trade Organization, and the Minister for Trade, the Hon. Simon Crean MP, addressed the delegates.

Sessions that sparked particular debate included those on dairy, agriculture’s entry into emissions trading, and farm performance. The economic overview and sessions on key commodities were also popular with delegates seeking the latest economic forecasts and industry and sector analyses.

Agricultural commodity analysis—Australian crop report and Australian wheat supply and exports monthly

The Australian crop report was released quarterly. It detailed national and state area and production forecasts for major grain commodities in Australia.

The first report in a new monthly series, Australian wheat supply and exports monthly, was released on the ABARE website in February 2009. These reports combine ABARE wheat production forecasts with Australian Bureau of Statistics survey data, plus monthly wheat export data by shipping method and destination, to provide an estimate of the volume of wheat potentially available to the market at the end of each month. The objective of the report is to better inform the wheat industry of grain supply and aggregate disposals.

Productivity

ABARE updated its 2006–07 productivity estimates for the broadacre and dairy industries and presented the findings at the national Outlook conference. They were also released as a report in Australian commodities in March 2009.

We enhanced and developed our systems to produce consistent and reliable total factor productivity estimates for the broadacre and dairy industries.

Our report on the total factor productivity of the beef cattle and slaughter lamb industries was released on the ABARE website in December 2008. This was funded by Meat & Livestock Australia.

ABARE provided briefings on productivity issues at various forums, including the Primary Industries Ministerial Council and the Primary Industries Standing Committee.

Water

In March 2009, ABARE presented findings on the economic impact of climate change on irrigation in the Murray–Darling Basin, based on current and alternative water-sharing arrangements.

We also examined aspects of water trading and more flexible rules for intertemporal water use, including:

the potential benefits from giving irrigators more control over their intertemporal water use, as is being demonstrated in capacity-sharing schemes in southern Queensland

the characteristics of irrigators trading water, and how trading helps them deal with low allocations of water during drought.

Fisheries

ABARE analysed the economic returns for 2006–07 for the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery, and for the Commonwealth trawl and gillnet, hook and trap sectors of the southern and eastern scalefish and shark fishery. Our report, funded by the Fisheries Resources Research Fund, was released in October 2008. We also:

• conducted an economic survey of the northern prawn and Torres Strait fisheries
• developed methods and information to support the assessment of economic performance in Commonwealth fisheries, and released a report on this (partly funded by the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation) in March 2009
• contributed economic analysis for the upcoming joint BRS/ABARE fishery status reports to be published in 2009
• published Australian fisheries statistics 2008 (with DAFF and Fisheries Research and Development Corporation funding)
• provided fisheries statistics to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

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Relevant advice—BRS

Water resources

BRS provided scientific advice on groundwater recharge rates in the Great Artesian Basin and restoration of groundwater pressure due to bore capping and piping.

As part of a cross-jurisdictional working group, we contributed to an ongoing review of the design of salt interception works along the Murray River to assist in the control of river salinity levels.

At the 2009 Salinity Exchange Conference, we delivered a keynote address examining the relative success of salinity mitigation investments.

We also represented the Australian Government and the department on the National Groundwater Committee and Northern Australia Sustainable Yields Steering Committee. These committees are senior intergovernmental networks that inform national groundwater policies and resource management, including under climate change and alternative land development scenarios.

Biotechnology and biosecurity

As part of the National Biotechnology Strategy, BRS released final agricultural biotechnology reports on pest and weed control, climate change and product integrity issues, and genetically modified (GM) crops.

We developed and released Climatch in December 2008. This is a web-based application to predict the likely establishment and spread of pests if they were introduced into Australia. The software is regularly used by the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA) and state and territory governments. Climatch can be used to establish cost-sharing arrangements for managing introduced species between the states and territories, and for conducting risk assessments for proposed imports of exotic species such as the Savannah cat.

BRS supported the department’s work on invasive species in a range of areas, including:

• advice to the Invasive Marine Species Program for the delivery of the National System for the Prevention and Management of Marine Pest Incursions
• technical advice on Caring for our Country pest animal targets
• scientific and technical advice on pest, weed and disease threats to various national committees and working groups, ensuring alignment with the Australian Pest Animal Strategy and the Australian Weeds Strategy.
• We administered the Australian Pest Animal Management Program, which funds projects to develop and promote improved approaches for reducing the agricultural impacts of pest animals.

Climate change

BRS continued to operate and maintain the web-based National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) to streamline the EC assessment process. The website underpins the advice provided to the National Rural Advisory Council for new applications and reviews. In 2008–09 NAMS was used by DAFF to review 112 EC-declared areas, three interim assistance applications and two prima facie areas. We delivered more than 260 regional EC assessment and update reports to support the EC reviews. In addition, NAMS was regularly used by industry bodies, producers and researchers to assist in risk assessment for agriculture.

To support the Australian Government’s review of drought policy, BRS provided DAFF and the Productivity Commission with information, maps and statistics on the history, duration and national coverage of EC.

We prepared submissions to the House of Representatives inquiry into meteorological forecasting, and contributed to DAFF submissions to Senate and House of Representatives inquiries into climate change in agriculture.

We hosted a joint US–Australia drought workshop where more than 20 multidisciplinary organisations discussed drought and water resource management in a social, economic and climate research context.

We provided fact sheets on climate change and a series of ‘Masters of climate’ seminars as part of the collaborative project Communicating Climate Change with Agricultural Industries (under the National Agriculture and Climate Change Action Plan).

We produced Science for decision makers: soil carbon management and carbon trading, supported by a technical report, Soil carbon for carbon sequestration and trading: a review of issues for agriculture and forestry, aimed at supporting decision-making in the climate change arena.

We also collaborated with ABARE to develop a weekly Australian climate, water and commodity price update, which was widely distributed within DAFF, to the minister’s office and to other Australian Government departments. BRS published the monthly National climate and agricultural update report through the NAMS website.

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Fisheries and marine sciences

In 2008–09, BRS provided scientific advice to policymakers and regulators on a range of key policy issues relating to fisheries management. These include:

• illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in northern Australia
• impacts of climate change on fisheries
• threatened species and key threatening processes
• stock status of southern bluefin tuna and other Commonwealth fisheries
• fisheries harvest strategies and associated rebuilding strategies.

We produced the Fishery status reports 2007 of Commonwealth-managed fisheries and actively participated in all of the Australian Fisheries Management Authority’s resource assessment groups.

As part of the portfolio responsibility to assess the status of fisheries managed by the Australian Government, BRS completed its annual assessment of the status of 96 Commonwealth-managed fish stocks. Results were reported in the Fishery status reports 2007, confirming a turnaround in stock status observed in the previous (2006) reports following a decade when the number of overfished stocks increased.

The Australian Government is currently investing in research led by BRS, as part of an election commitment, to reduce the level of uncertainty in the stock status of Commonwealth-managed fisheries. By reducing the number of uncertain stocks, the project will provide security to the fishing industry, as well as assurance to the broader Australian community that fish stocks are being sustainably managed.

We worked with the Sustainable Resource Management and Climate Change divisions of DAFF to develop a draft National Climate Change and Fisheries Action Plan. This will help the government fulfil an election commitment to fast-track the implementation of a sustainable fisheries plan.

We also led Australian delegations to scientific meetings of the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna, the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission and the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission, negotiations to establish a South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation and numerous other bilateral and multilateral meetings. BRS is responsible for Australia’s mandatory data submissions and national fishing reports to these international organisations.

Social data and research

BRS conducted research and provided advice to support evidence-based social policy development in many areas. Examples are:

• social inclusion in agriculture—issues papers on the involvement of women, young people and Indigenous people and communities in rural areas and primary industries
• incorporation of social science into the community skills, knowledge and engagement priority area of Caring for our Country
• social values that influence water allocation outcomes—a study of changes in water allocation in the Daly River catchment in the Northern Territory, Lake Mokoan in Victoria and the Namoi Valley in New South Wales
• assessment of attitudes of northern Australian communities to cane toad impacts and management
• social impacts of drought review studies—two reports as part of the national review of drought policy, and two analyses of the social wellbeing of rural Australians.

Land and forest sciences

BRS provided scientific advice to ministers and other decision-makers on a wide range of land, vegetation and forest policy and program issues relevant to portfolio industries. Examples are:

• briefs on the current extent of plantation forests, forest industry employment and area of production native forests
• maps showing the extent, condition and status of forest, vegetation, land use and land management practices
• briefs for Australian delegations to the UN Convention on Sustainable Development, the UN Desertification Convention and the International Union for Conservation of Nature World Conservation Congress
• published the State of the forests report 2008 forest profiles, pocket-sized Forests at a glance, and National plantations update 2009
• completed and submitted Australia’s Forest Resource Assessment report to the FAO.

A new version of the Multi-Criteria Analysis Shell for Spatial Decision Support (MCAS-S) was released and used to provide scientific support for the Caring for our Country Reef Rescue program, to support reduction in land-based pollutant discharges into the Great Barrier Reef.

Data were analysed and used in documentation for a new national native vegetation extent baseline dataset. This dataset was incorporated in many applications, including the National Vegetation Information Analysis; Vegetation, Assets, States and Transitions accounting; Australian Vegetation Assessment; Land Use; and Integrated Vegetation websites. National land cover information such as this is essential for targeting investment and monitoring progress towards sustainable farming practices under Caring for our Country.

We established and completed the work program for the 2008–09 Australian Collaborative Land Use Mapping Program, including oversight of three national workshops, publication of the program prospectus and Land Use Mapping Information System status report, and development of a new website and mapping tool. These activities underpin DAFF’s national and international reporting requirements and priority analyses for programs including Caring for our Country.

Science awards

Through the Australian Agricultural Industries Young Innovators and Scientists Awards, which are sponsored by industry to encourage young people in rural industries, 14 young people received awards of up to $20 000 in October 2008. One of these winners, Dr Nicholas Hudson from CSIRO Livestock Industries, received the BRS-sponsored inaugural Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Award, valued at an additional $30 000.

Dr Hudson will use his award to investigate the molecular processes and genetic controls that may make feed conversion in beef cattle more efficient. If successful, this research will help Australia’s beef industry to become more globally competitive and mitigate climate change by reducing methane emissions.

Following a review in late 2008, the 2009 awards were launched in April 2009 under the revised name ‘Science and Innovation Awards for Young People in Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry’.

Online information and interactive systems

NAMS (see page 118) continued to support a key departmental priority by helping to streamline the EC assessment process for drought assistance measures. The NAMS website received about 15 000 visits and generated about 2200 reports during the year.

BRS maintained its major online tools to provide specific spatial information to support decisions by land managers. These include Land Use Mapping for Australia and the spatial decision support tool MCAS-S, which prioritises NRM investment, risk assessment and ecosystem services analysis.

In 2008–09 a web-based version of the BRS Climatch software, which is used to model potential distributions of pests and weeds, was developed and released.

A prototype of the Australian Fisheries Information System was developed and is due to be released to stakeholders for feedback in 2009–10.

BRS developed a pilot stream sampling site with the Jugiong Creek community stream sampling field site as a trial catchment. After a successful trial BRS expanded this development to the Murray–Darling Basin community stream sampling site.

Targeted assessments

BRS uses its datasets, research capabilities and analytical expertise to provide integrated social and biophysical assessments of regions and industries as required by industry groups, governments and other stakeholders.

Targeted assessments in 2008–09 included:

• use of BRS’s innovative spatial decision support tool MCAS-S to assist with targeting of investments to protect the Great Barrier Reef as part of the Reef Rescue initiative
• assessment of the status of 96 Commonwealth-managed fish stocks, which confirmed the turnaround in stock status observed in the previous (2006) report, following a decade when the number of overfished stocks increased
• assessment and statistical analysis of options for potential drought thresholds, including related climate change impacts, to inform the drought policy review
• large-scale airborne electromagnetic surveys of the Murray River corridor and lower Macquarie River catchment that identified significant fresh groundwater flush zones, as a result of which DEWHA commissioned targeted investigations into the quantity and quality of potentially available fresh groundwater.

International activities

In 2008–09 ABARE conducted a consultation, at the request of AusAID, to assess Indonesia’s resource management framework. We reported on our findings at a five-day meeting in May 2009 with Indonesian government and industry representatives and other stakeholders. Our executive director presented ABARE’s work on Indonesia’s forest, mining, oil and gas industries—including directly to the Indonesian finance minister. The consultation will result in the development of research partnerships on forestry and climate change issues between ABARE and Indonesia.

In partnership with China’s Institute for Applied International Trade at the University of International Business and Economics, ABARE coordinated the 4th Agricultural Trade Policy Dialogue in November 2008 in Beijing with funding from AusAID. The dialogue brought together government negotiators, trade policy analysts and modelling experts from China, Australia and other Asian countries to exchange views on issues important to World Trade Organization negotiations and Chinese agricultural trade policy, and to share experiences in trade policy analysis and modelling.

Our international activities also included seminars on policy and research with representatives from China’s Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development (IAE) under the ABARE–IAE Trade Modelling Exchange capacity-building project funded by AusAID.

BRS participated in a workshop in December 2008 in Beijing, to scope a new program of work following a review of the Qinghai Forestry Resources Management Project, a recently completed six-year (2002–08), $12 million AusAID-funded project. At the workshop we presented our new spatial decision support tool MCAS-S, and demonstrated its application in natural resources decision-making in Australia. BRS will continue to participate in developing the new program of work during 2009–10.

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ABARE publications and papers in 2008–09

Table 16 – ABARE publications and papers, 2008–09

Category	Type	Title	Published
Agriculture	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Drivers of productivity growth in agriculture	Mar-09
Carbon pollution	Issues 09.1	Opportunities for forestry under the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS): an examination of some key factors	Mar-09
	Issues 09.2	Agriculture and the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS): economic issues and implications	Mar-09
	Conference paper	Assessing the environmental externalities from biofuels in Australia	Feb-09
	Issues 09.6	Effects of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme on the economic value of farm products	Jun-09
Climate change	Conference paper	The impact of climate change on the irrigated agricultural industries in the Murray–Darling Basin	Feb-09
Commodities—articles	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Outlook for Australia’s commodity sector	Mar-09
Commodities—Australian commodities	Publication	Australian commodities	September, December 2008; March, June 2009
Commodities—Australian statistics	Publication	Australian commodity statistics 2008	Dec-08
Commodities—conferences	Conference paper	Commodity outlook and financial performance of key agricultural industries in NSW (Orange regional outlook conference (ROC))	Jul-08
	Conference paper	Commodity outlook and financial performance of key agricultural industries in south west WA (Bunbury ROC)	Jul-08
	Conference paper	Commodity outlook and financial performance of key agricultural industries in south east SA (Mt Gambier ROC)	Aug-08
	Conference paper	Commodity outlook and financial performance of key agricultural industries in Tasmania (Hobart ROC)	Oct-08
	Conference paper	Performance of agriculture and resource industries in northern pastoral Australia (Alice Springs ROC)	Oct-08
	Conference paper	Commodity outlook and financial performance of key agricultural industries in south east Queensland (Kingaroy ROC)	Apr-09
	Conference paper	Commodity outlook and financial performance of key agricultural industries in the Kimberley (Kununurra ROC)	May-09
Crops	Publication	Australian crop report: no. 147	September, December 2008; February, June 2009
	Publication	Australian grains 09.1: Financial performance of grains producing farms 2006–07 to 2008–09	May-09
Dairy	Current issues publication	Australian dairy 08.1: Financial performance of dairy farms, 2005–06 to 2007–08	Sep-08
	Publication	Australian dairy industry: use of technology and management practices on dairy farms 1991–92 to 2006–07	Dec-08
	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Outlook for dairy	Mar-09
	Current issues publication	Australian dairy 09.1: Financial performance of dairy producing farms, 2006–07 to 2008–09	Jun-09
Farm performance	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Australian farm performance and implications for the future	Mar-09
	Publication	Australian farm survey results 2006–07 to 2008–09	Apr-09
Fisheries	Publication	Australian fisheries survey report 2008	Oct-08
	Publication	Fishery economic status report 2007	Nov-08
	Publication	Analysis of productivity and the impacts of swordfish stock depletion in the eastern tuna and billfish fishery	Feb-09
	Publication	Development of methods and information to support the assessment of economic performance in Commonwealth fisheries	Mar-09
Food	Publication	Changing food consumption and imports in Malaysia: opportunities for Australian agricultural exports	Aug-08
	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Global food security—an Australian perspective	Mar-09
Forest	Publication	Australian forest and wood products statistics—March/June quarters 2008	Nov-08
	Publication	ABARE 2007 sawmill survey report	Apr-09
	Publication	Australian forest and wood products statistics—September/December quarters 2008	May-09
GM crops	Publication	GM stockfeed in Australia: economic issues for producers and consumers	Jan-09
	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Outlook for grains	Mar-09
Livestock	Publication	Productivity in the beef cattle and slaughter lamb industries	Dec-08
	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Outlook for meat	Apr-09
	Publication	The Korean beef market: developments and prospects	May-09
	Publication	Australian beef 09.1: Financial performance of beef farms, 2006–07 to 2008–09	Jun-09
	Publication	Australian lamb 09.1: Financial performance of slaughter lamb producing farms, 2006–07 to 2008–09	Jun-09
NRM	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Prioritising NRM investments at different scales	Apr-09
Sugar	Publication	Financial performance of Australian sugar cane producers, 2005–06 to 2007–08	Sep-08
Trade	Publication	The 2008 US Farm Bill. What is in it and what will it change?	Dec-08
	Publication	Major US farm support policies and their links to WTO domestic support commitments	Jan-09
	Issues 09.5	Factors affecting Australian agricultural exports	Mar-09
Vegetables	Publication	Australian vegetable growing farms: an economic survey 2006–07	Jan-09
Water	Publication	Urban water management: optimal pricing and investment policy under climate variability	Aug-08
	Publication	An economic survey of irrigation farms in the Murray-Darling Basin	Nov-08
	Conference paper	Management of irrigation water storages: carryover rights and capacity sharing	Feb-09
	Issues 09.3	Climate change, irrigation and risk management	Mar-09
	Issues 09.4	Irrigated agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin: a farm level analysis by region and industry	Mar-09
	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: The economic impacts of reduced water availability	Mar-09
	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Performance of irrigation farms in the Murray–Darling Basin	Mar-09
	Publication	Dealing with irrigation drought: the role of water trading in adapting to water shortages in the southern Murray–Darling Basin	Mar-09
	Publication	Irrigation in the Murray–Darling Basin: farm trading temporary water in 2006–07	May-09
	Publication	Irrigation in the Murray-Darling Basin: financial performance in 2006–07	May-09
	Publication	Management of irrigation water storages: carryover rights and capacity sharing	May-09
	Publication	Capacity sharing in the St George and MacIntyre Brook irrigation schemes in southern Queensland	Jun-09
Wine	Publication	A survey of wine grape growing farms in the Murray Valley and Barossa regions 2006–07	Dec-08
	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Outlook for wine grapes and wine	Mar-09
	Publication	Australian wine grape production projections to 2010–11	Mar-09
Wool	Conference paper	Outlook 2009: Outlook for wool	Mar-09

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BRS publications and papers in 2008–09

Table 17 – BRS publications and papers in 2008–09

Category	Type	Title	Published
Agriculture	Publication	Australia’s agricultural industries 2008: at a glance	Jul-08
	Book chapter	Contribution on ‘Signposts for Australian agriculture’ to a book on adaptive management by Catherine Allan, Charles Sturt University	Jun-09
Biosecurity	Report	Genetically modified crops: tools for insect pest and weed control in cotton and canola	Nov-08
	Report	Maintaining product integrity in the Australian seed and grain supply chain—the role of sampling and testing for GM events	Dec-08
	Report	Australia’s crops and pastures in a changing climate—can biotechnology help?	Dec-08
	Web page	CLIMATCH manual	Dec-08
	Report	Exotic nationally significant environmental invasive pathogens and invertebrates	Jan-09
	Report	Engaging in biosecurity: gap analysis	Mar-09
	Report	Evaluating the equivalence of a systems approach to certification of pest free status for fresh fruit and vegetables that may host fruit flies	Apr-09
	Scientific journal article	Determinants of established success for introduced mammals	Apr-09
	Report	Suitability of climate in New Zealand and Australia for European canker	Apr-09
	Report	Combining disparate data to demonstrate pest status: pre-emptive surveillance for fire ants in urban areas	Jun-09
	Scientific journal article	Determinants of establishment success for introduced birds in New Zealand	Jun-09
	Report	Are there climatic conditions conducive to European canker (Neonectria galligena) infection of host trees in New Zealand and Australia?	Jun-09
	Scientific journal article	Predicting establishment success for reptiles and amphibians: a role for climate matching and history of success elsewhere	Jun-09
Climate	Fact sheet	National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)	Sep-08
	Fact sheets	Communicating Climate Change	Nov-08
	Report	Soil carbon for carbon sequestration and trading: a review of issues for agriculture and forestry.	Mar-09
	Publication	Science for decision-makers: soil carbon management and carbon trading	Mar-09
Fisheries	Meeting paper	Spatial analysis of catch per unit effort data in the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery: a case study for jackass morwong	Aug-08
	Meeting paper	National Tuna Fishery Report 2007	Aug-08
	Meeting paper	Assessing the accuracy and precision of stereo-video and sonar length measurements of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii)	Sep-08
	Meeting paper	Report on the potential of spawning ground surveys: development of a fishery-independent abundance index	Sep-08
	Meeting paper	Australia’s 2006–07 Southern Bluefin Tuna Fishing Season	Sep-08
	Meeting paper	Preparation of Australia’s southern bluefin tuna catch and effort data submission for 2008	Sep-08
	Meeting paper	Estimating Australia’s recreational catch of southern bluefin tuna	Sep-08
	Report	Fishery Status Reports 2007	Sep-08
	Meeting paper	Australia’s annual review of the southern bluefin tuna fishery	Oct-08
	Meeting paper	Elephant fish and saw shark. Application of Tier 4 Harvest Control Rule 2008.	Nov-08
	Technical report	Effects of fishing on high risk bycatch species in the Western Tuna and Billfish Fishery	Nov-08
	Technical report	Implementation of bycatch mitigation measures in Australia’s pelagic longline fisheries. Stage III: The effects of circle hooks on target and non-target catches	Dec-08
	Journal paper	Experience in implementing harvest strategies in Australia’s south-eastern fisheries	Dec-08
	Technical report	Catalogue of Australian recreational fishery databases	Dec-08
	Journal paper	Developing harvest strategies for low-value and data-poor fisheries: case studies from three Australian fisheries	Dec-08
	Technical report	Review of information on cryptic mortality and the survival of sharks and rays released by recreational fishers	Dec-08
	Meeting paper	National report to the IOTC Scientific Committee for Australian tuna fisheries 2008	Dec-08
	Technical report	Evaluating fisheries co-management trials—a discussion paper	Mar-09
	Technical report	Chondrichthyan guide for fisheries managers. A practical guide for mitigating chondrichthyan bycatch	Mar-09
	Technical report	Assessing operational feasibility of stereo-video and evaluating monitoring options for the southern bluefin tuna fishery ranch sector	Apr-09
	Journal paper	The effects of circle hooks on bycatch and target catches in Australia’s pelagic longline fishery	May-09
	Meeting paper	Saw shark CPUE standardisation 2009	May-09
	Meeting paper	Working document for the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation 7th Meeting: Fishing by Australian flagged vessels in the proposed SPRFMO area in 2007 and 2008	May-09
Forest	Publication	Australian forest profiles: plantations	Jul-08
	Magazine article	Plantation forests: the facts revealed	Oct-08
	Publication	Australian forest profiles series	Oct-08
	Technical report	Assessing the extent of Australia’s forests burnt by planned and unplanned fires	Nov-08
	Publication	Australia’s forests at a glance 2009	Feb-09
	Publication	Soil carbon for carbon sequestration and trading: a review of issues for agriculture and forestry	Mar-09
	Report	Role, values and potential of Australia’s private native forests	Apr-09
	Publication	Australia’s plantations 2009 inventory update	May-09
NRM	Manual	A field manual for surveying and mapping nationally significant weeds	Jul-08
	Journal paper	Describing and mapping human-induced vegetation change in the Australian landscape	Jul-08
	Publication	Understanding the benefits that vegetation provides	Aug-08
	Report	Understanding the benefits that vegetation provides—managing vegetation for multiple ecosystem services	Sep-08
	Web page	Managing green waste to reduce weed spread—for home gardeners	Sep-08
	Web page	Managing green waste to reduce weed spread—for local councils	Sep-08
	Magazine article	What does vegetation do for me?	Oct-08
	Magazine article	Mapping priorities—planning re-vegetation in southern NSW using a new decision-support tool	Oct-08
	Web page	Rabbits—a threat to conservation and natural resource management	Nov-08
	Book chapter	Vegetation	Feb-09
	Scientific journal article	Opening the climate modelling envelope—realising range limitations	May-09
	Newsletter Article	Watching the sleepers	Jun-09
	Magazine article	Status of Australia’s revegetation information 2009	Jun-09
People and social analysis	Report	Climate risk and adaptation among primary producers: topline results focusing on primary producers reporting the effects of adverse seasonal conditions	Sep-08
	Report	The social wellbeing of rural Australians: an analysis of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) longitudinal dataset	Sep-08
	Report	The social wellbeing of rural Australians: a comparative analysis of agricultural workers in drought-affected areas and the Australian population using the Deakin Personal Wellbeing Index	Sep-08
	Report	Water for what? Productive and environmental values for water	Sep-08
	Report	Water 2010: assessing dependence on water for agriculture and social resilience	Sep-08
	Report	An analysis of the social aspects of establishing agricultural recycled water schemes—social perspectives on water	Sep-08
	Booklet	2008 Australian Agricultural Industries Young Innovators and Scientists Award Winners	Oct-08
	Report	Assessing a community’s capacity to manage change: a resilience approach to social assessment	Nov-08
	Report	Making MERI for natural resource management in Australia	Nov-08
	Report	Attitudes to national resource management in the Border Rivers–Gwydir Catchment	Dec-08
	Report	Drivers of practice change in soil and land cover management in Australian agriculture	Jun-09
	Report	Community involvement in recreational fisheries data collection: opportunities and challenges	Jun-09
	Report	Community of practice for structured decision-making. Phase II.	Jun-09
Water	Report	Independent peer review of the Upper Nepean (Kangaloon) Borefield Project, Southern Highlands, NSW (Rein Habermehl)	Jul-08
	Report	Palynostratigraphy of selected core and cuttings, stratigraphic drillholes LMQ-01 to LMQ-26, Lower Macquarie Valley, north-west New South Wales	Aug-08
	Report	Client report: Phase 2—ACT Groundwater Recharge Assessment	Sep-08
	Report	Client report: ACT Groundwater Characterisation	Sep-08
	Report	Drilling, coring and geophysical logging for calibration of AEM survey in the Lower Macquarie Valley, NE NSW	Oct-08
	Maps and report	GIS and mapping to support the NWC annual water markets report 2007/2008—Final Technical Report	Dec-08
	Report	Sustainable groundwater allocations in the intake beds of the Great Artesian Basin	Mar-09
	Report and fact sheets	Land salinity monitoring manual and fact sheets	Mar-09
	Report	Inter-aquifer leakage in the Queensland and New South Wales parts of the Great Artesian Basin	Mar-09
	Report	Alternative water sources	Apr-09
	Report	Lake Tutchewop pore fluid chemistry report	May-09
	Report	National Baseline for Land Salinity: Regional Reports (Part 1 of 3)	Jun-09
	Report	Land salinity network design monitoring manual	Jun-09
	Report	Barr creek—Gunbower pore fluid chemistry report	Jun-09
	Technical report	Community stream sampling and salinity mapping project—Catchment Management Authority Jugiong stream sampling report	Jun-09

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Outlook for 2009–10

ABARE

In 2009–10 ABARE will pursue a range of climate change and research initiatives in consultation with DAFF’s Climate Change Division. In this context, we will work to increase our understanding of the economic issues surrounding, and implications of, the inclusion of agriculture in the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

ABARE will also undertake forest and land use research, focusing on the economics of land use change and implications for agricultural production. We will develop and incorporate land use dynamics in ABARE’s computable general equilibrium models.

We will support the understanding of NRM issues by the portfolio through Caring for our Country.

The Murray–Darling Basin Authority will be preparing a new basin plan, to be completed by 2011, containing new sustainable diversion limits for catchments. Much of ABARE’s research in this area in 2009–10 will focus on identifying the economic impacts of alternative diversion limits on irrigators and rural communities in the basin.

ABARE’s commodity analysis and farm survey programs will continue to produce timely market forecasts, outlook information and farm performance estimates to inform decision-making on issues important to the portfolio industries.

ABARE will undertake comparisons of productivity growth for the broadacre and dairy industries in Australia, the US, Canada and Europe. ABARE and the Grains Research and Development Corporation are undertaking a joint initiative intended to improve the outcomes from research and development investment in agriculture. This program will commence with a series of workshops with growers, consultants, scientists and economists to collect information and ideas on how to lift agricultural productivity over the longer term.

ABARE’s fisheries research program will continue to assist the Australian Fisheries Management Authority and policymakers to manage Commonwealth fisheries for economic and biological sustainability. Underpinning the research program will be ongoing statistical research. This will include compiling a comprehensive set of statistics to inform decision-making, and estimating economic returns through formal surveys of fisheries. ABARE will also focus on continued monitoring of economic indicators for larger fisheries, and developing economic indicators to better assess economic returns for many smaller fisheries.

BRS

A new emphasis for BRS in 2009–10 will be providing advice to support policy development for the inclusion of agriculture in the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. BRS will have an increased focus on advising the government on the rural sector’s adaptation to climate change—particularly the impact of climate change on agricultural cropping, land use viability and regional productivity. BRS will also provide advice on the potential for emissions abatement in agriculture and food industries from different technologies, and an analysis of potential gaps in current research to assist development of work under the Climate Change Research Program.

The ongoing review of drought policy and the continuation of existing EC arrangements will provide a significant focus for BRS advice to support government decision-making, with 46 EC regions to be reviewed in 2009–10.

BRS will continue to work with industry groups to develop industry-relevant information systems that support decision-making in the agricultural industries.

BRS will administer the 2009–10 Australian Pest Animal Management Program, ensuring that research projects are consistent with national strategies and support Caring for our Country. We will gather feedback on stakeholders’ perceptions of the benefits of a national strategy in managing nationally significant weeds, and provide tools to assist in assessing weeds to include in the Weeds of National Significance program.

BRS and ABARE will integrate the social research and policy functions of the department. A particular focus will be facilitating the inclusion of target groups (young people, women, Indigenous peoples and culturally and linguistically diverse peoples) involved in agriculture, fisheries and forestry activities in Australian Government policies and programs.

BRS will report on the largest airborne geophysical surveys undertaken in Australia for NRM purposes. This work will greatly assist sustainable management of major irrigation and environmental assets.

BRS will model the biophysical impacts of expected changes in climate on production forests as part of the Climate Modelling and Impacts on Forests and Forestry project.

BRS’s land work will help improve evaluation and reporting of sustainable farm practices by developing consistent, up-to-date baseline land use mapping and analysis techniques. We will also ensure that the portfolio is effectively linked with major national initiatives such as the CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network and the proposed National Environmental Information System.

BRS’s fisheries work will include continuing to update the assessment of the southern bluefin tuna stock and developing and testing strategies and management procedures for rebuilding the stock. We will continue the progress of an election commitment to reduce the level of uncertainty in the stock status of Commonwealth-managed fisheries and undertake ongoing reviews of Commonwealth fisheries harvest strategies.

BRS will assess the impacts of climate change on fisheries and undertake analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of marine protected areas under the DEWHA Marine Bioregional Planning Program.

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Performance under administered items for Output 1.5

Table 18 – Output 1.5 performance—administered items

Administered item 1.5.1 Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis and Research
Budget	$1.689 million
Key performance indicator	Meet the objectives of the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA): Contribute towards more sustainable, competitive and profitable primary industries by engaging relevant skills and sciences to research and develop risk analysis methods to improve science-based decision making and aid Australian risk assessment. Publish and communicate research findings to raise community understanding of risk, and promote excellence in risk analysis in Australia to assist Australia to influence international standards in risk analysis.
Measured by	Extent to which ACERA continues to meet its objectives, according to agreed work plan and budget.
2008–09 target	ACERA objectives met.
Performance outcome	Target met.
Comments	A new funding agreement was signed with the ACERA host (the University of Melbourne) for the period to 30 June 2013. A new ACERA work plan is being developed that will include descriptions of five major technical and communication projects to support the activities of the DAFF Biosecurity Services Group.

 

Performance under departmental outputs in Output 1.5

Table 19 – Output 1.5 performance—departmental outputs

Key performance indicators	2008–09 target	2008–09 achievement
Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) objectives are met	Perform the agreed work plan on schedule and within the agreed budget	ACERA continued to perform the agreed work plan on schedule and within the agreed budget.
ABARE research, briefings, forecasts and data meet the needs of government, industry decision-makers and other stakeholders	Greater than 80% achievement of project milestones	The 2008–09 client and stakeholder feedback survey indicated that 89% of respondents were satisfied to very satisfied with ABARE’s achievement of milestones for research projects, briefings and other products.
	Greater than 80% rating of client satisfaction with project outcomes	The 2008–09 client and stakeholder feedback survey indicated that 97% of respondents were satisfied to very satisfied with the project outcomes delivered by ABARE.
	Greater than 80% rating of client satisfaction with timeliness and provision of advice	The 2008–09 client and stakeholder feedback survey indicated that 89% of respondents were satisfied to very satisfied with the timeliness and provision of advice.
The extent that production of scientific analyses, assessments, advice and tools by BRS is relevant, of appropriate quality and influences client decision-making	Greater than 80% client satisfaction rating with project outcomes	The 2008–09 client and stakeholder feedback survey indicated that 100% of respondents were satisfied to very satisfied with the project outcomes delivered by BRS.
	Greater than 80% achievement of project milestones	Greater than 80% of 2008–09 project milestones were completed.
	High level of client demand for advice, contributions and commissioned projects consistent with or exceeds trend information of demand for services	BRS continues to sustain a demand for services that is consistent with previous years.
	Timeliness of provision of advice and products to clients and achievement of project milestones, with client satisfaction rating of greater than 80%, measured through client feedback including through client feedback survey	The 2008–09 client and stakeholder feedback survey indicated that timeliness of advice and products to clients required further efforts by BRS to achieve its target. The snapshot indicated that more than 70% of clients were satisfied to very satisfied with the timeliness of advice.
	Delivery of 100% of advice and products within planned budgets	Advice and products were delivered within allocated resources.

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Stakeholder consultations

ABARE and BRS consulted formally and informally with stakeholders on a wide range of issues in 2008–09. Formal consultative activities included:

ABARE

• consultation with the Indonesian Ministry of Finance on a scoping study undertaken by ABARE into Indonesia’s forest, mining, oil and gas industries, with future collaborative research to be undertaken on forestry and climate change issues
• a seminar with senior representatives of agricultural and resource economic research groups in state and territory departments on developing and expanding ABARE’s links with those groups, including through collaboration on complementary research
• consultation with A3P, a major forest industry body, as input to ABARE’s work program on forestry and land use issues
• presentation of the complete agricultural outlook, as published in the March edition of Australian commodities, to Landmark employees in New South Wales, giving them an opportunity to question ABARE’s forecasts and methods and to learn more about the types of analysis we do
• meetings in Brisbane with the water utility SunWater and with irrigators to gather stakeholder views on capacity sharing, a Queensland water policy reform implemented in the St George and MacIntyre Brook irrigation schemes, with the view of extending the reform to other states and territories
• regional conferences on the 2009 Outlook conference topic, ‘A changing climate for agriculture’, held in Orange, Bunbury, Mt Gambier, Hobart, Alice Springs, Kingaroy, and Kununurra. Delegates accessed the latest commodity data, discussed industry trends and information and made new contacts in their community. The Regional Outlook conferences are an essential part of ABARE’s delivery of commodity forecasts and research results directly to rural and regional communities, with conference programs featuring local speakers and local issues.

BRS

• three Masters of Climate workshops (67 participants) and four Farmer Forums (approximately 500 attendees) to provide information to farmers on climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture
• discussions with senior government officials regarding future water availability contingency planning options
• engagement with Victorian growers in areas identified for biosecurity controls (potato-growing and fruit fly affected areas) to discuss biosecurity issues and control adoption methods
• a four-day field consultation with industry stakeholders in the canola supply chain conducted in Melbourne, Bendigo, Rupanyup, Horsham, Mt Gambier, Toowoomba and Brisbane, which informed BRS’s analysis in the December 2008 report Maintaining product integrity in the Australian seed and grain supply chain—the role of sampling and testing for GM events
• interviews of project managers, community members and data users about community involvement in recreational fisheries monitoring, to assist with determining a preferred approach to community-based monitoring of recreational fishing in Commonwealth fisheries
• interviews with grain growers and industry representatives in Queensland, Western Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia, as part of the Grain Knowledge Networks project
• workshops with policy staff, extension staff and farmers from Australia’s four major climatic regions to consult on the drivers of adoption of sustainable farm practices
• interviews with key researchers and practitioners around Australia to determine the drivers of innovation in agritourism
• six focus groups (60 participants) involved with the Environmental Stewardship Program in New South Wales to identify key influences on participation in the program
• interviews with industry, government, extension officers and farmers on how to improve engagement with culturally and linguistically diverse groups.

Conferences

As part of the department’s engagement with communities of expertise and other stakeholders, ABARE and BRS officers attended a large number of external conferences and seminars in 2008–09. These included:

ABARE

• conferences and forums that helped align ABARE’s climate change and Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme work program with those of industry bodies; international organisations; and the Commonwealth, state and territory and New Zealand treasuries
• ‘GM Crops: Risks and Benefits’, a conference of scientists, agronomists, economists and farmers from across Australia and North America, which brought different streams of research together and, through ABARE’s contribution on the economics of GM crops, demonstrated our expertise in this area
• participation in the Stamford University’s Energy Modelling Forum, identifying research priorities associated with modelling land use, land cover and impacts of climate change policy
• engaging with officials and researchers on ABARE–IAE Trade Modelling Exchange
• Australian Economic Society conference sessions focusing on productivity analysis
• the annual conference of the Victorian division of the Dairy Industry Association of Australia, where we presented a paper on industry outlook and export trends
• the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society annual conference, where we presented a paper on management of irrigation water storages
• presenting ‘Productivity in the beef cattle and slaughter lamb industries’ to economists from Australian and international government and academic institutions

BRS

• the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Agricultural Meteorology, where we chaired a session, ‘Agrometeorological analyses: gaps and limitations’, in which recommendations, conclusions and actions were developed around three key workshop themes: agrometeorological products, communication strategies, and interaction between service providers and farmers
• a joint US–Australia drought workshop hosted by BRS where more than 20 multidisciplinary organisations discussed drought and water resource management in a social, economic and climate research context
• AusBiotech 2008, Australia’s biotechnology industry conference attended by industry stakeholders, investors, policymakers and scientists from 32 countries, with the theme of building a bioeconomy to meet climate, food, health, investment and fuel challenges
• the first International Invasive Bird Conference, held in Perth and attended by scientists and invasive species managers from around the world, where BRS presented a paper on managing bird damage to fruit and other horticultural crops, based on a comprehensive pest bird book authored by BRS
• OzWater 2009, a conference of approximately 500 water scientists, water industry professionals and managers, and water policy officers, covering many aspects of water management, research, policy and strategy
• the General Circulation Model Selection for Regional Studies workshop, a two-day workshop hosted by CSIRO on climate modelling, emphasising regionalisation, downscaling and evaluation
• the Society for Risk Analysis (Australian & New Zealand Regional Organisation), which we sponsored through ACERA
• the third annual ACERA conference, hosted by the Australian National University
• a two-day national Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries forum on how climate change is affecting Australia’s climate variability and implications for climate forecasts
• a technical workshop of the FAO Remote Sensing Task Force for the global Forest Resource Assessment 2010, with invitees from 22 countries representing a range of forest types and remote sensing expertise, where BRS presented a review of the forest land cover classification methodology proposed for global rollout in 2009–10
• the 5th World Fisheries Congress (in Japan) of fisheries scientists and managers, where BRS presented papers on the Commonwealth fisheries harvest strategy policy and stock status reporting.

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