Decision support system
APLC Decision Support System for Monitoring and Forecasting Locust Populations
The APLC uses a geographic information systems (GIS) based decision support system (DSS) to assist locust forecasting and operations. The data collection components of the DSS include transfer of locust survey data from the field and daily internet collections of weather data. Locust distribution and age information is collected by APLC officers on regular vehicle surveys using GPS-connected palmtop computers and emailed to Canberra for transfer to a GIS server.
Geographic information systems enable the integration of those environmental factors which determine habitat suitability and those which influence locust distribution and recruitment, with known distributions to model development across the entire monitoring area. In this way short term predictions of development stage, reproductive success and likely numbers can be made for known and potential populations at any location.
The primary management decisions - the early intervention strategy, control opportunities, constraints and methodology, the use of spotter and spray aircraft - utilize the experience gained from years of research and operations. Operational campaign decisions - population thresholds to launch or cease campaigns, control agent, technique and identification of targets - require intensive field assessment and are made by officers conducting a control campaign.
The decision support system consists of a set of computerised secondary decision tools that have been added or modified as technology, information sources and operational needs change. They provide access to databases, simulation models and spatial analyses and maps to support both forecasting and operations.
Forecasting Support Tools
- Daily weather analyses – rainfall, temperature, windfields
- Gridded accumulated rainfall for consecutive days
- Locust distributions- survey data
- Location-specific weather data for development models
- Automatic modelling of potential and known populations
- Wind trajectory analysis
- Processed data outputs from Insect Monitoring Radar (IMR)
- Satellite vegetation greenness index (NDVI) imagery
- Bulletin maps
Operations Access Tools
- Field survey data collection, transfer and GIS processing
- Display interface to survey and control information
- Historical locust databases
- Landuse limitations – nature conservation, organic production, threatened species
- Property boundaries – state digital cadastral extracts
- Control information navigation and data management software (OpsManager)
- Property control maps
- DGPS target logfile conversion and management
Online Support Tools
- Regional forecasts and observations
- GMS weather satellite IR hourly cloud images and loops
- Weather Watch Radar
- 4 – 10 day rainfall forecasts and longterm (SOI) seasonal outlook
The DSS is built using a commercial vendor GIS system and uses scripting to coordinate data ingestion, processing, modelling and visualisation. It depends on regular internet data feeds of reported and modelled weather data from the Bureau of Meteorology via file transfer protocols and locust distribution data from surveys as input to development and movement models. The operation of the DSS for forecasting involves modelling critical lifestage events and likely outcomes for the current and offspring generation from initial distribution estimates based on survey or reports. It is designed to give experienced staff access to all relevant primary or derived information. For operations it provides map overviews and detailed regional views of the current locust situation that can be combined with relevant environmental conditions and infrastructure.
The image below is a summary of survey records for the Australian plague locust collected during November and December 2008. Adult density is shown by pink symbols, with red indicating swarms, and nymphs are shown by green symbols.
For further information contact the Australian Plague Locust Commission