How Reliable is Australia's Rainfall

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How Reliable is Australia's Rainfall

Rainfall Risk

In most regions of Australia, production rainfalls occur as small numbers of large falls. For the purpose of agriculture many statistical descriptions, such as averages, only partially describe rainfall risk.1

Maps showing average rainfall for the northern (summer) and southern (spring) pasture growing season

Intraseasonal reliability

Additional information about the spread and shape of the historical rainfall distribution provides a more complete measure of rainfall risk.2

The Intraseasonal reliability provides more information about rainfall risk which can be mapped across a region or the continent.

Maps showing how often does at least half the average fall for each month in summer and spring?

Maps showing how often do falls exceed 15mm in each month during summer and spring?

Technical notes

1. These measures describe a particular part of the distribution of historical rainfall. For example the average is one measure of 'central tendency' which captures only part of the picture when considering historical climate variability.

2. Intraseasonal reliability captures information about the central tendency as well as the dispersion of the historical rainfall distribution in one number. This allows spatial representation of the data. The statistic is determined by a binary (yes/no) sort of the historical record.

Rainfall Reliability for Agriculture

Rainfall is one of the important production risks for agriculture. The following maps are examples of how the rainfall reliability wizard might be used to explore rainfall risk for a given aspect of an agricultural production system.

Maps showing sowing opportunities for winter wheat & prospects of moderate rainfall during winter crop development and maturation

  • Sowing opportunities for winter wheat and prospects of moderate rainfall during winter crop development and maturation

    For enlargement of wheat maps

Map showing Dryland Dairy Production - rainfall conditions for sustained pasture production

Map showing chance of an early start to the northern pasture growing season

Users are encouraged to fully explore rainfall risk - based on their own experience and expectations - and then integrate the results with other information to make decisions.

Contact

Greg Laughlin
Senior Principal Scientist
Bureau of Rural Sciences
Phone: (02) 6272 3347
Email: Greg Laughlin



Last reviewed: 30 Mar 2007
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